Everyone is watching NVIDIA right now. As the undisputed leader in AI chips, its stock moves the entire market. Traders want to know if the rally will continue or if a pullback is imminent.
This guide is not just a quick news update. It is a deep dive into the essential numbers, technical levels, and fundamental drivers you need before the next earnings call. We will look at dates, market cap, analyst sentiment, and the specific impact of the new Blackwell architecture. Nvidia Stock.
If you trade NVDA, the S&P 500, or semiconductor ETFs, this is your roadmap for February 2026.
Summary Checklist for Traders:
- Mark Feb 25 on your calendar.
- Check the 50-day moving average level.
- Monitor the 10-Year Treasury Yield.
- Watch for news on Blackwell delays.
- Have a strict stop-loss plan in place.
When is the NVIDIA Q4 earnings date?
NVIDIA is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on February 25, 2026.
This is the most critical date on the calendar for tech investors. The report will cover the fiscal year that ended on January 25, 2026. Because NVIDIA is such a large part of the S&P 500, this announcement often causes volatility across the entire stock market.
Key details to mark on your calendar:
- Date: Wednesday, February 25, 2026
- Time: After market close (typically 4:20 PM ET)
- Event: Q4 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Release & Conference Call
- Impact: High volatility expected for NVDA and AI-related stocks
What is NVIDIA’s current market cap?
As of mid-February 2026, NVIDIA’s market cap stands at approximately $4.6 trillion.
This massive valuation makes it one of the most valuable companies in the world. To put this in perspective, some bullish analysts believe the stock still has room to grow. There are aggressive forecasts suggesting the company could eventually reach a $20 trillion valuation if AI adoption continues at its current pace.
However, a high market cap also means high expectations. The company must deliver perfect results to justify this price tag. If growth slows even slightly, the stock could see a sharp correction.
How much does NVIDIA stock move on earnings?
Historical data shows that NVIDIA stock is very volatile around earnings reports. Traders need to be ready for big swings.
Historical Earnings Price Swings:
- Q3 Fiscal 2026: Stock moved +/- 8% in the week following earnings.
- Q2 Fiscal 2026: Stock dropped 6% initially despite beating revenue targets.
- Q1 Fiscal 2026: Stock surged 12% on massive guidance raise.
On average, the options market prices in a move of about 6-10% for NVIDIA earnings. For a stock trading at these levels, that represents hundreds of billions of dollars in market cap swinging in a single day.
Why does it swing so much?
It swings because everyone is crowded into the trade. When everyone owns the same stock, small pieces of news cause a stampede. If the news is good, buyers rush in. If the news is bad, everyone tries to sell at once.
Is NVIDIA stock a buy before earnings?
Is Nvidia stock a good buy now? Or, Can Nvidia hit $300? This is the most common question traders ask. The answer depends on your risk tolerance, but here is the current analyst sentiment.
What are analysts saying?
Top analysts remain bullish on NVDA heading into the Q4 report. They point to several positive factors:
- Dominance in AI: No other company matches their chip performance.
- Strong Demand: Data centers are still buying GPUs at record rates.
- Future Growth: New product lines are expected to drive revenue higher.
While the long-term view is positive, buying right before earnings is risky. Stock prices can swing wildly based on a single data point in the report. If you buy before the report, you are essentially gambling on the binary outcome of the news.
Why did NVIDIA stock drop recently?
You may have noticed a dip in the stock price around mid-February. On Friday, February 13, 2026, NVDA shares fell by 2.2%.
How did this impact the market?
This drop didn’t just hurt NVIDIA shareholders. It dragged down the S&P 500. This event showed “market fragility.” Because the S&P 500 is weighted heavily toward a few big tech companies, a bad day for NVIDIA often means a bad day for the general market.
Traders should be aware that NVDA acts as an anchor for the broader indices. If you trade S&P 500 futures (ES) or ETFs (SPY), you must watch NVDA charts. If NVDA breaks a key support level, it will likely pull the rest of the market down with it.
What is the Blackwell chip and why does it matter?
The “Blackwell” architecture is NVIDIA’s newest and most powerful AI chip design. It is the successor to the incredibly popular Hopper (H100) chips.
Why Blackwell changes the game:
- Speed: It is significantly faster at training massive AI models.
- Efficiency: It uses less energy per calculation, which saves data centers money.
- Moat: It makes it even harder for competitors like AMD to catch up.
How does NVDA Blackwell impact 2026 guidance?
Traders need to listen closely to what CEO Jensen Huang says about Blackwell shipments.
- Bull Case: NVIDIA says Blackwell production is ahead of schedule and demand is “unlimited.” This would cause the stock to soar.
- Bear Case: NVIDIA mentions supply chain bottlenecks or manufacturing delays for Blackwell. This would cause the stock to drop.
The guidance for the next quarter will likely depend entirely on how many Blackwell chips they can manufacture and ship.
Who are NVIDIA’s main competitors?
While NVIDIA is the leader, they are not alone. Traders need to watch the competition to see if NVIDIA is losing market share.
1. AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)
AMD is the closest direct competitor. Their MI300 series chips are powerful and cheaper than NVIDIA’s H100s.
- Threat Level: Moderate. AMD is gaining traction, but NVIDIA’s software ecosystem (CUDA) keeps most developers loyal.
2. Google (Alphabet)
Google designs its own AI chips called TPUs (Tensor Processing Units). They use these for their own AI models instead of buying only NVIDIA chips.
- Threat Level: High (Long term). If big tech companies like Google build their own chips, they will buy fewer NVIDIA chips.
3. Microsoft & Amazon
Like Google, these giants are designing custom silicon for their cloud servers.
- Threat Level: Medium. They still buy massive amounts of NVIDIA chips, but they want to reduce their dependence on one supplier.
What are the technical support and resistance levels?
For technical traders, price action is king. Here are the key levels to watch on the NVDA chart leading up to February 25.
Key Resistance Levels (The Ceiling)
- All-Time High: This is the obvious target. If price breaks above this level with high volume, it signals a “blue sky breakout.”
- Psychological Numbers: Round numbers (like $150, $160, depending on splits/price) often act as magnets for profit-taking.
Key Support Levels (The Floor)
- 50-Day Moving Average: This line tracks the medium-term trend. Institutional investors often step in to buy when the price touches this line.
- Previous Breakout Zones: Old resistance becomes new support. Look for levels where the stock struggled to pass in the past.
- Gap Fills: NVIDIA stock often leaves “gaps” on the chart after big earnings moves. Price tends to return to these levels eventually to “fill the gap.”
Trading Strategy:
If the stock drops to the 50-day moving average and bounces, it might be a low-risk entry point. If it crashes through that level on high volume, it signals a deeper correction.
How do interest rates affect NVDA stock?
Macroeconomics matter, even for a growth beast like NVIDIA. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions have a direct impact on high-growth tech stocks.
The Relationship:
- High Interest Rates: Bad for tech. High rates make borrowing money expensive. It lowers the present value of future earnings. When rates go up, stocks like NVDA often go down.
- Low Interest Rates: Good for tech. Low rates encourage risk-taking and make future growth more valuable.
Current Context (Feb 2026):
Traders need to watch the 10-Year Treasury Yield. If yields are spiking higher, it creates a headwind for NVDA. If yields are falling, it gives the stock room to run.
What is the “Implied Volatility” trap?
If you trade options, you must understand Implied Volatility (IV).
Before earnings, IV goes up. This makes options premiums very expensive. The market is pricing in a big move.
The “IV Crush”:
Immediately after the earnings report is released, uncertainty disappears. Implied Volatility crashes. This causes the value of both Call and Put options to drop significantly, even if the stock price moves in your direction.
How to avoid the trap:
- Don’t just buy naked calls/puts: Consider spreads (Debit Spreads or Credit Spreads) to offset the high cost of volatility.
- Sell volatility: Some advanced traders sell options before earnings to profit from the IV crush, but this carries high risk.
What are the risks of holding NVDA long-term?
While the hype is real, the risks are also real. Every trader should know the bear case.
What should traders watch for on February 25?
Beyond the raw revenue and profit numbers, listen for guidance on the earnings call. The “guidance” is the company’s prediction for the next quarter.
Three things that will move the stock:
- AI Chip Demand: Is demand slowing down or speeding up? Look for phrases like “accelerating demand” or “inventory digestion.”
- Supply Chain Updates: Can they make enough chips to meet orders? Any mention of “constraints” is usually bullish for pricing but bearish for volume.
- Gross Margins: Is NVIDIA making as much profit on each chip? If competition forces them to lower prices, margins will drop, and the stock will fall.
If NVIDIA beats expectations and raises guidance, the stock could surge. If they beat expectations but offer weak guidance, the stock could sell off.
What is the “Sovereign AI” trend?
A new driver for NVIDIA revenue is “Sovereign AI.” This refers to nations building their own AI infrastructure.
Countries like Japan, Canada, France, and nations in the Middle East are spending billions to build domestic supercomputers. They do not want to rely on US tech giants for their intelligence.
How to trade the post-earnings reaction
Once the numbers are out on Feb 25, how do you trade the reaction?
Scenario A: The “Gap and Go”
- What happens: Stock gaps up 5%+ and stays there.
- Action: Wait for a small pullback to the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) and buy the dip. Do not chase the open.
Scenario B: The “Pop and Drop”
- What happens: Stock spikes initially but then fades quickly.
- Action: This is a sign that big institutions are selling into the liquidity. Short sellers might take control. Be very careful buying this.
Scenario C: The “Flush”
- What happens: Stock gaps down significantly.
- Action: Look for support at major moving averages (like the 200-day). Often, knee-jerk selling is an overreaction. Patient traders can pick up shares at a discount if the fundamental story hasn’t changed.
Conclusion: Prepare for Volatility
NVIDIA remains the king of the AI trade. With a $4.6 trillion market cap and a major earnings report on February 25, volatility is guaranteed.
This is not a stock for the faint of heart. The rewards can be massive, but the risks are equally large.
The long-term trend looks strong, but the short-term action will depend heavily on the upcoming report. Stay disciplined, manage your risk, and stick to your trading plan.
Disclaimer:
All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner’s prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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