Forex Market Today: Oil falls as Trump signals US-Iran talks, while the dollar, gold, stocks and crypto react ahead of Friday’s NFP report.
📌 Key Market Takeaways
✅ Trump signals that US-Iran talks will resume, improving risk sentiment.
✅ Oil prices fall toward $80 as geopolitical risk premium begins to ease.
✅ Traders shift attention toward Friday’s Non-Farm Employment Change and NFP signals.
✅ US PCE inflation cooled in June, matching market expectations.
⚠️ Federal Reserve policy remains restrictive as inflation risks continue influencing rate expectations.
✅ JOLTS Job Openings and ADP Employment Change will provide clues ahead of NFP.
✅ Gold remains supported by geopolitical uncertainty despite softer oil prices.
✅ Equities benefit from improving risk appetite while Bitcoin remains sensitive to macroeconomic conditions.
Market Outlook: Oil Falls as Trump Signals US-Iran Talks, NFP Takes Center Stage
TraderFactor Market Report: August 03, 2026
Global financial markets begin the week with improving risk sentiment after President Donald Trump signaled that US-Iran talks would resume Monday. The development has pushed oil prices lower as traders reduce some of the geopolitical risk premium built into crude prices. At the same time, investors are turning their attention to a busy US economic calendar that culminates in Friday’s Non-Farm Employment Change report. The dollar, gold, equities, cryptocurrencies and major currency pairs could experience increased volatility as traders assess manufacturing data, labor-market indicators and the latest signals about Federal Reserve policy.
⚡ Quick Market Answer
Markets are starting the week with a more positive tone after Donald Trump signaled that US-Iran talks will resume. Oil prices have fallen toward $80 as geopolitical risk premiums ease, while stocks and risk-sensitive currencies benefit from improving sentiment.
The next major focus is the US employment market. JOLTS, ADP and ISM Services PMI will provide clues ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Employment Change report, which could become the week’s biggest catalyst for the US dollar, gold, equities and crypto.
Table of Contents
Economic Calendar
📅 Economic Calendar This Week
| Day | Key Event | Impact | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | 🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI | ★★★ High | USD • Gold |
| Tue | 🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings | ★★★ High | USD • Gold |
| Wed | 🇳🇿 NZ Employment 🇺🇸 ADP • ISM Services | ★★★ High | NZD • USD • Gold |
| Thu | 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims | ★★ Medium | USD • Gold |
| Fri | 🇨🇦 Canada Jobs 🇺🇸 NFP • Earnings • Unemployment | ★★★ HIGH | CAD • USD • Gold • Stocks • BTC |
★★★ High Impact
★★ Medium
★ Low
Support and Resistance Snapshot
📊 Support, Resistance & Market Bias
| Asset | Current Price | Support | Resistance | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 99.406 | 98.80 | 100.20 | ➡ Neutral |
| Gold | 4066 | 4000 | 4120 | 📈 Bullish |
| EURUSD | 1.15312 | 1.1450 | 1.1600 | 📈 Bullish |
| GBPUSD | 1.34684 | 1.3380 | 1.3550 | 📈 Bullish |
| NZDUSD | 0.58802 | 0.5820 | 0.5950 | 📈 Bullish |
| AUDUSD | 0.70308 | 0.6970 | 0.7100 | ➡ Neutral |
| USDCAD | 1.40330 | 1.3950 | 1.4100 | 📉 Bearish |
| USDJPY | 156.452 | 155.00 | 158.00 | 📉 Bearish |
| USDCHF | 0.80894 | 0.8030 | 0.8150 | ➡ Neutral |
| BTCUSD | 62800 | 62000 | 65000 | ➡ Neutral |
| WTI Oil | 80.231 | 78.00 | 84.00 | 📉 Bearish |
| NAS100 | 28548 | 28000 | 29000 | 📈 Bullish |
| US30 | 52780 | 52000 | 53200 | 📈 Bullish |
| SP500 | 7542 | 7450 | 7600 | 📈 Bullish |
Market Analysis
Currencies / Forex
Forex markets are beginning the week with the US dollar under pressure as improving US-Iran diplomatic expectations encourage investors to reduce some defensive positioning. The dollar’s decline is also occurring against the backdrop of softer June PCE inflation, which has reduced some immediate pressure on US interest-rate expectations. However, the Federal Reserve remains cautious, meaning the dollar could quickly recover if upcoming labor-market data shows continued economic resilience.
The major theme for forex traders this week is the US employment market. JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Services PMI will provide important NFP signals before Friday’s official employment report. A stronger sequence of labor-market readings could support the dollar, while signs of weakening employment could increase expectations for easier monetary policy.
EURUSD
EURUSD remains bullish around 1.15312 as broad US dollar weakness supports the euro. The pair has benefited from improving risk sentiment as hopes of renewed US-Iran negotiations reduce demand for defensive dollar positions.
From a technical perspective, the 1.1450 region provides nearby support, while 1.1600 is the next major resistance area. A sustained break above resistance could strengthen the bullish structure, although a stronger-than-expected US employment report could quickly reverse the move.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD continues trading firmly around 1.34684 as sterling benefits from a softer dollar and improving global risk sentiment. Traders remain focused on the UK’s monetary-policy outlook and upcoming economic indicators.
The pair remains supported above 1.3380, while 1.3550 represents an important upside barrier. A break above resistance would strengthen the bullish outlook, while renewed dollar demand could push GBPUSD back toward support.
NZDUSD
NZDUSD remains supported near 0.5880 as improving risk sentiment benefits the New Zealand dollar. Commodity-linked currencies generally respond positively when investors become more comfortable holding risk assets.
The pair faces resistance around 0.5950. A move through that area could strengthen bullish momentum, while weaker global growth expectations or a strong US jobs report could pressure the kiwi lower.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD continues trading near 0.70308 as investors balance improving risk appetite against uncertainty surrounding global growth and commodity demand.
The Australian dollar remains sensitive to Chinese economic conditions, commodity prices and overall risk sentiment. Support around 0.6970 remains important, while a break above 0.7100 could improve the short-term technical outlook.
USDCAD
USDCAD remains elevated near 1.40330 despite the decline in oil prices. Falling crude prices reduce one of the traditional sources of support for the Canadian dollar, while broader US dollar movements remain the dominant driver.
Technically, 1.3950 is the first major support level, while 1.4100 remains resistance. Canadian economic data later this week could add volatility to the pair.
USDJPY
USDJPY has fallen toward 156.45 as the dollar weakens and the Japanese yen continues benefiting from expectations of gradual policy normalization.
The pair remains vulnerable below 158.00, with 155.00 acting as important support. Any renewed rise in US Treasury yields could support USDJPY, while stronger expectations for future BOJ tightening could keep pressure on the pair.
USDCHF
USDCHF remains close to 0.8090 as traders balance weaker dollar demand against Switzerland’s traditional safe-haven appeal.
A sustained break below 0.8030 could strengthen the bearish outlook, while a move back above 0.8150 would signal renewed dollar demand.
Crypto / Bitcoin
Bitcoin remains around $62,800 as investors assess the improvement in global risk sentiment alongside uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy. Softer US inflation has helped reduce some concerns about aggressive monetary tightening, but traders remain cautious ahead of Friday’s employment report.
Technically, Bitcoin remains trapped between approximately $62,000 support and $65,000 resistance. A break above $65,000 could attract fresh momentum buying, while a failure to hold $62,000 would expose the cryptocurrency to additional downside. NFP is particularly important because a strong employment report could strengthen the dollar and pressure risk assets, while weaker employment data could support Bitcoin through lower-rate expectations.
Gold
Gold remains supported near $4,066 as investors continue to balance safe-haven demand against changing expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Improving US-Iran diplomacy has reduced some geopolitical demand for precious metals, but the conflict remains unresolved and could quickly return to the center of market attention.
Technically, gold remains above the $4,000 psychological level, with support around $4,000 and resistance near $4,120. A stronger dollar following a robust NFP report could pressure gold, while a weaker labor-market reading could support the metal by increasing expectations for future monetary easing.
Stocks / Equities
US equities remain supported as improving US-Iran diplomatic expectations reduce immediate geopolitical risk. The Nasdaq, Dow and S&P 500 are benefiting from stronger risk appetite, while softer inflation has also helped reduce concerns about an immediate acceleration in monetary tightening.
However, Friday’s employment report remains a major risk event. Strong NFP data could push Treasury yields higher and create pressure on rate-sensitive technology stocks, while a softer report could support expectations of future easing and provide another boost to equities.
NAS100
NAS100 remains bullish near 28,548 as improving risk sentiment supports technology stocks. The index also continues benefiting from strong expectations surrounding AI investment and corporate earnings.
Support is around 28,000, while resistance is near 29,000. A break above 29,000 could extend the bullish move, although rising yields following strong employment data could create pressure on technology valuations.
US30
US30 remains strong around 52,780 as investors continue favoring large-cap and value-oriented companies. Improving geopolitical sentiment is also helping reduce defensive positioning.
Support sits around 52,000, while resistance is near 53,200. A stronger labor market could support economic optimism, but sharply higher Treasury yields could eventually limit upside.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 remains bullish around 7,542, supported by improving risk appetite and expectations of resilient corporate earnings.
The index has support near 7,450 and resistance around 7,600. A sustained break above 7,600 would strengthen the bullish structure, while a disappointing employment report could initially create growth concerns even as it increases expectations for easier Fed policy.
Geopolitics
Geopolitical headlines remain a major market driver at the beginning of the week. President Donald Trump has signaled that US-Iran talks would resume Monday, improving investor sentiment and reducing some fears of immediate military escalation. The development has contributed to a sharp decline in oil prices as traders remove part of the geopolitical risk premium from crude.
The decline in oil is particularly important for inflation expectations. When crude prices rise sharply because of supply fears, investors worry that higher energy costs could feed into transportation, production and consumer prices. That can complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook because persistent inflation may require interest rates to remain restrictive for longer.
For now, markets are treating the diplomatic development cautiously. The conflict remains unresolved, meaning any breakdown in negotiations could quickly reverse the recent moves. Oil, gold, the US dollar and equity markets are therefore likely to remain highly sensitive to headlines from Washington, Tehran and the broader Middle East.
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Economic Calendar
Monday – ISM Manufacturing PMI
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is the main scheduled event on Monday. The report measures activity across the US manufacturing sector and provides information on production, new orders, employment and prices.
A reading above 50 generally indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. A stronger-than-expected result could support the US dollar by suggesting that economic activity remains resilient. A weak reading could increase concerns about slowing growth and place downward pressure on the dollar.
The July report is scheduled for release on August 3 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Tuesday – JOLTS Job Openings
JOLTS Job Openings will be one of Tuesday’s most important US labor-market indicators, with approximately 7.42 million openings expected according to the market outlook provided for this report.
The data measures available job openings and provides insight into labor demand. A stronger-than-expected result would suggest that businesses continue to require workers, potentially supporting wage growth and the US economy.
For forex traders, strong JOLTS data could strengthen the dollar because it may reduce expectations for rapid monetary easing. A weak reading could have the opposite effect and support gold and other rate-sensitive assets.
Wednesday – New Zealand Employment Report
New Zealand’s employment report will provide important information about labor-market conditions and could influence expectations for Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy.
Stronger employment growth combined with a lower unemployment rate could support the New Zealand dollar by reducing expectations for monetary easing. Conversely, weakening employment conditions could pressure NZDUSD and increase expectations for a more accommodative RBNZ stance.
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report measures estimated private-sector employment growth and is closely watched ahead of Friday’s official US employment report.
It is often considered an early NFP signal, although ADP and official Non-Farm Payrolls can diverge significantly.
A stronger ADP reading could support the dollar and Treasury yields, while a weaker result could increase speculation that Friday’s NFP may disappoint.
ISM Services PMI
The ISM Services PMI measures activity across the much larger US services sector.
A strong services reading would indicate continued economic resilience and could support the dollar. A weak result could raise concerns about slowing growth and increase expectations for easier monetary policy.
Because services activity is closely connected to employment and consumer demand, traders may use the report as another signal when preparing for Friday’s NFP release.
Thursday – US Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims provide a timely indication of changes in the US labor market.
A sustained increase in unemployment claims can signal weakening employment conditions and potentially reduce expectations for tighter monetary policy. This could weigh on the dollar while supporting gold.
Conversely, low claims would reinforce the view that the US labor market remains resilient, potentially supporting the dollar ahead of NFP.
Friday – Canada Employment Report
Canada’s employment report will provide fresh insight into labor-market conditions and could generate significant volatility in CAD pairs.
Stronger employment growth would normally support the Canadian dollar, while rising unemployment or weak job creation could pressure CAD.
USDCAD could react sharply if Canadian employment data surprises the market, particularly because the pair is already sensitive to movements in crude oil.
US Average Hourly Earnings
Average Hourly Earnings are an important component of the US employment report because wage growth provides clues about inflationary pressure.
Stronger wage growth can increase concerns that inflation may remain persistent, potentially supporting the US dollar and Treasury yields. Softer wage growth could reduce inflation pressure and support expectations for future Fed easing.
For traders, wage growth should therefore be analyzed alongside NFP rather than in isolation.
Non-Farm Employment Change / NFP
Friday’s Non-Farm Employment Change will be the week’s biggest market event.
The report measures changes in US nonfarm payroll employment and is one of the most important indicators of labor-market health. A stronger-than-expected employment figure can support the US dollar because it suggests economic resilience and may reduce expectations for interest-rate cuts.
With the market expecting approximately 88,000 new jobs, the size of the deviation from expectations will be particularly important.
A result significantly above expectations could strengthen the dollar, lift Treasury yields and pressure gold. A weaker-than-expected number could weaken the dollar while supporting gold, equities and cryptocurrencies through increased expectations of monetary easing.
Friday – US Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate will be released alongside NFP and can significantly influence the market reaction.
A falling unemployment rate generally signals a resilient labor market and can support the dollar. A rising unemployment rate may increase expectations that the Federal Reserve could eventually reduce interest rates.
Traders should therefore assess NFP, unemployment and Average Hourly Earnings together rather than relying on the payroll number alone.
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Final Outlook
Markets are entering the week with a more constructive tone after Trump signaled that US-Iran talks would resume. The development has reduced immediate fears of further escalation and pushed oil prices lower, while improving risk appetite has provided support for equities and risk-sensitive currencies.
However, the geopolitical situation remains fragile. Any breakdown in negotiations could quickly reverse the recent decline in oil and trigger renewed demand for gold and safe-haven currencies.
The bigger scheduled catalyst is Friday’s US employment report. With Non-Farm Employment Change expected at approximately 88,000, traders will closely compare the actual result with expectations and analyze it alongside Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate.
Before NFP arrives, JOLTS, ADP and ISM Services PMI will provide important NFP signals. A sequence of strong employment indicators could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold, while weaker labor-market data could increase expectations for Fed easing.
For now, the market bias favors improving risk appetite, but traders should remain prepared for rapid changes as geopolitical headlines and US employment data compete for market attention.
FAQs
What is another name for NFP?
NFP stands for Non-Farm Payrolls and is commonly referred to as the US Non-Farm Employment report or US jobs report. It measures changes in employment across the US economy, excluding certain categories such as farm workers, private household employees and some government workers.
What is the difference between ADP and NFP?
ADP measures estimated private-sector employment, while NFP is part of the official US employment report produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ADP can provide an NFP signal, but the two reports can produce different results.
What does non-farm payroll mean in forex trading?
In forex trading, Non-Farm Payrolls is one of the most important economic events because it provides information about the health of the US labor market. A strong result can strengthen USD, while a weak result can pressure the dollar.
How many pips is NFP?
There is no fixed number of pips that NFP moves. Major currency pairs can experience substantial volatility immediately after the release, but the size of the move depends on the difference between actual results and expectations, unemployment, wages and the broader Federal Reserve outlook.
Is it good to trade during NFP?
NFP can create significant trading opportunities, but it also creates substantial risk. Spreads can widen, liquidity can change rapidly and price can move in both directions within seconds. Traders should use appropriate risk management.
Should I trade the day before NFP?
Many traders reduce their exposure before NFP because liquidity and volatility can change as markets position for the employment report. Waiting for clearer price action or reducing position size can help manage event risk.
How to predict NFP before release?
Traders cannot reliably predict NFP with certainty. However, they can monitor NFP signals including ADP employment, JOLTS Job Openings, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM employment components, unemployment claims and wage indicators.
Is 100 pips a day possible?
A trader can potentially capture a 100-pip move, particularly during major news events such as NFP, but there is no reliable way to make 100 pips every day. Focusing on consistent risk management is more important than targeting a fixed daily pip amount.
Is NFP bullish or bearish?
NFP itself is neither automatically bullish nor bearish. A stronger-than-expected employment report is generally positive for USD, while a weaker result can be negative for USD. The market reaction also depends on wages, unemployment and expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
How to trade NFP successfully?
A structured NFP trading strategy should begin with identifying the market consensus, key support and resistance levels, liquidity zones and expected volatility. Traders can then wait for the initial reaction and look for confirmation rather than entering blindly during the first price spike.
Which currency to trade during NFP?
USD pairs are usually the most directly affected. EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF are among the major pairs traders monitor. Gold can also experience significant volatility because it is highly sensitive to changes in the US dollar and Treasury yields.
What happens if NFP is high?
If NFP is significantly higher than expected, the US dollar may strengthen as traders interpret the result as evidence of a resilient economy. Treasury yields may rise and expectations for rapid Fed easing may decline, potentially putting pressure on gold.
How many pips does NFP move in forex?
There is no guaranteed NFP pip movement. The reaction can range from a relatively small move to a very large move depending on the surprise in the employment data and accompanying unemployment and wage figures.
Is higher NFP better?
A higher NFP figure generally indicates stronger job creation, which is positive for economic growth. However, for financial markets, the reaction depends on expectations. An extremely strong result could increase inflation concerns and reduce expectations for interest-rate cuts.
Is NFP always on a Friday?
The US employment report is normally released on the first Friday of each month, although the schedule can occasionally change because of holidays or other circumstances.
How to trade gold during NFP?
Gold traders should monitor the relationship between NFP, the US dollar and Treasury yields. A strong NFP result can strengthen USD and push gold lower, while weak employment data can weaken USD and support gold. Waiting for confirmation after the initial volatility can reduce false entries.
Is NFP buy or sell?
There is no universal NFP buy or sell signal. Traders should compare the actual result with expectations and assess the unemployment rate and Average Hourly Earnings before determining the market bias. A strong NFP can favor USD buying, while a weak report can favor USD selling.
What is the Non-Farm Employment Change effect on USD?
The Non-Farm Employment Change effect on USD is generally positive when employment growth significantly exceeds expectations. Strong job creation can reduce expectations for Fed easing and support the dollar. A weak employment report can have the opposite effect.
What is the Non-Farm Employment Change effect on gold?
The Non-Farm Employment Change effect on gold is often inverse to its effect on USD. Strong employment data can strengthen the dollar and Treasury yields, creating pressure on gold. Weak employment data can support gold by increasing expectations for easier monetary policy.
What does NFP mean in trading?
NFP meaning in trading refers to the US Non-Farm Payrolls employment indicator and its potential impact on USD, gold, stocks, bonds and cryptocurrencies. It is considered one of the most important scheduled market-moving events.
Where can I follow NFP news today live?
Traders can monitor the official economic release, financial news services and economic calendars for NFP news today live. It is important to compare the actual figure with the forecast and previous reading rather than focusing on the headline number alone.
Is there an NFP trading strategy PDF?
A useful NFP Trading Strategy PDF should explain how to prepare before the announcement, identify liquidity and support/resistance, manage risk during volatility and evaluate the actual result against market expectations. Traders should avoid treating any strategy as a guaranteed method of predicting the market.
What are the best NFP signals?
Useful NFP signals include JOLTS Job Openings, ADP employment, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM employment data, unemployment expectations and Average Hourly Earnings. These indicators can help traders build a broader view of labor-market conditions before the official report.
How do you trade NFP in forex?
To trade NFP in forex, start by recording the consensus forecast, previous reading and important technical levels. Monitor pre-NFP positioning, wait for the release and evaluate the actual employment, unemployment and wage numbers together. Confirmation after the initial volatility can help reduce the risk of entering during a false breakout.
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About the Author
Zahari Rangelov
Head of Business Development, TraderFactor
Zahari specializes in broker analysis, regulatory research, and trading education. He has over a decade of experience helping traders navigate the complex world of online brokers. His expertise spans technical and fundamental analysis, medium-term trading strategies, risk management, and trading psychology. A respected mentor and speaker, Zahari regularly leads webinars and seminars covering market sentiment, speculative instruments, and automated trading systems. His research-backed, practical approach has established him as a trusted authority within the global trading community.
Reviewed By:
Reviewed by Alex Kanyi, Head of Compliance at TraderFactor
“This report is for general information only. Trading involves significant risk. Seek independent advice before acting on any content.”
