Market Outlook This Week: Global PMIs, Central Bank Decisions and Trump-Xi Summit in Focus
Week of September 21–25, 2026 | Forex, Gold, Oil, Bitcoin & Global Stock Market Outlook
A new trading week begins after one of the busiest periods for global monetary policy this year.
During the past two weeks, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan all raised interest rates, while the Bank of England kept rates unchanged but delivered a relatively hawkish vote.
That has left financial markets facing a very different question.
The focus is no longer simply on whether major central banks will tighten policy.
Traders now need to determine how long rates may remain elevated and which central banks could tighten next.
This week brings another important set of catalysts including global Flash PMI surveys, central-bank decisions in Switzerland, Norway and Sweden, US Durable Goods Orders, weekly jobless claims and the final University of Michigan consumer survey.
Markets will also closely monitor Thursday’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with trade and broader economic relations expected to be major areas of discussion.
Oil remains another critical variable. WTI has slipped back toward the $100 region, but geopolitical supply risks remain capable of changing the inflation outlook very quickly.
🇨🇾 Zahari Rangelov at Wiki Finance Expo Cyprus 2026
TraderFactor’s Head of International BD, Zahari Rangelov, will represent TraderFactor as a key speaker at Wiki Finance Expo Cyprus 2026.
Table of Contents
💭 QUESTION OF THE WEEK
After the Fed, ECB and BoJ tightened policy, can global growth remain resilient — or will this week’s PMI data finally show that higher rates and expensive energy are beginning to bite?
This week’s battle:
Higher-for-Longer Rates
vs
Global Growth
📌 Key Takeaways
- Federal Reserve:
The Fed raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% last week and its projections continue to imply another possible hike. - Bank of Japan:
The BoJ raised rates to 1.25%, but the Yen initially weakened because the move had been largely priced in. - Bank of England:
The BoE held at 3.75%, although three policymakers voted for an immediate hike. - Global PMIs:
Flash manufacturing and services surveys from Europe, the UK, US, Australia and Japan are among this week’s most important growth indicators. - Central Banks:
Switzerland, Norway and Sweden announce policy decisions Thursday, while Mexico and South Africa are also in focus. - US-China:
The Trump-Xi meeting Thursday could influence trade-sensitive currencies, commodities and equities. - Gold:
Gold begins the week close to $4,370 as traders balance elevated yields against geopolitical and safe-haven demand. - Oil:
WTI has slipped back toward $100 as some supply fears ease, although Middle East risks remain. - Bitcoin:
BTC has recovered above $80K after falling toward $75K during last week’s central-bank volatility. - US Stocks:
Technology shares remained resilient last week even as the Dow suffered a significant weekly decline.
What Happened Last Week?
Last week’s markets were dominated by central banks, inflation and Treasury yields.
🇺🇸 Federal Reserve Raised Rates
The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%.
Fed projections showed a median year-end 2026 policy rate of 4.1%, keeping the possibility of another rate increase alive.
The Fed also projected 2026 PCE inflation at 3.7%, reinforcing the higher-for-longer narrative.
🇬🇧 Bank of England Held at 3.75%
The Bank of England maintained Bank Rate at 3.75%.
However, the vote was 6–3, with three policymakers preferring an immediate increase to 4.00%.
The BoE also warned that higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated for longer.
🇯🇵 Bank of Japan Raised Rates to 1.25%
The Bank of Japan increased its policy rate to 1.25%, its highest level in decades.
The Yen initially weakened because the decision had largely been anticipated and investors wanted stronger guidance on how quickly additional tightening could follow.
USD/JPY finished the week close to the 157 region.
🇪🇺 Don’t Forget the ECB
The European Central Bank had already raised its three major policy rates the previous week.
That means the Fed, ECB and BoJ have all recently tightened policy, increasing the importance of this week’s growth data.
Treasury Yields Returned to 5%
The US 10-year Treasury yield returned to approximately 5% on Friday.
That level remains extremely important for equities, gold and the Dollar because it influences borrowing costs throughout the global financial system.
Wall Street finished Friday mixed.
- S&P 500: 7,650.50
- Dow Jones: 51,682.64
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,522.55
- Nasdaq 100: 29,644.17
For the week, the S&P 500 slipped around 0.1%, the Dow fell approximately 1.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained roughly 0.7%.
The Biggest Market Themes This Week
1. Global PMIs Will Test the Higher-Rate Economy
Wednesday’s Flash PMI surveys could become the week’s most important economic data.
Markets receive manufacturing and services readings from Australia, France, Germany, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The central question is whether global growth remains resilient after multiple central banks tightened policy.
US manufacturing PMI is expected to remain above 50, while the services sector is expected to continue expanding.
Weak PMIs could reduce expectations for additional tightening.
Strong PMIs combined with persistent price pressures could reinforce the higher-for-longer narrative.
2. Another Central-Bank Thursday
Thursday brings another cluster of monetary-policy decisions.
The Swiss National Bank announces its latest policy decision with the policy rate currently at 0.00%.
Norges Bank also meets with Norway’s policy rate currently at 4.25%.
Sweden’s Riksbank announces its September decision with the policy rate currently at 1.75%.
Mexico and South Africa also have policy decisions scheduled.
That means CHF, NOK, SEK, MXN and ZAR could all experience elevated volatility.
3. Trump-Xi Meeting Could Move Risk Sentiment
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet Thursday.
Trade relations are expected to be a major part of the discussion.
For markets, the key issue is whether the meeting produces signs of greater trade stability or renewed friction.
AUD, NZD, commodities, technology shares and broader Asian markets could be particularly sensitive to headlines.
4. Fed Speakers Return
The economic calendar includes a heavy schedule of Federal Reserve speakers this week.
Their comments will be closely monitored following last week’s rate increase.
Traders will want to know whether officials broadly support another hike before year-end or believe the September increase provides enough restraint for now.
⚠️ Important Calendar Note: No US PCE This Friday
The August US Personal Income and Outlays report, including the PCE inflation index, is scheduled for September 30. This Friday’s main US releases are Durable Goods Orders and final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Current Market Snapshot
Approximate opening-week levels are shown below. Prices can vary slightly between brokers, exchanges and futures contracts.
Support and Resistance Levels This Week
These are analytical reference zones rather than exact trade-entry levels.
| Asset | Current | Support | Resistance | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 100.20 | 99.80 / 99.40 | 100.60 / 101.00 | Neutral-Bullish |
| Gold | ~$4,375 | $4,320 / $4,300 | $4,400 / $4,450 | Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.1487 | 1.1450 / 1.1400 | 1.1550 / 1.1600 | Neutral-Bearish |
| GBP/USD | 1.3384 | 1.3330 / 1.3280 | 1.3450 / 1.3520 | Neutral |
| NZD/USD | 0.5723 | 0.5690 / 0.5650 | 0.5780 / 0.5820 | Bearish-Neutral |
| AUD/USD | 0.7114 | 0.7080 / 0.7050 | 0.7180 / 0.7220 | Neutral |
| USD/CAD | 1.3991 | 1.3950 / 1.3900 | 1.4020 / 1.4070 | Neutral-Bullish |
| USD/JPY | 156.8 | 156.00 / 155.20 | 158.00 / 158.80 | Neutral-Bullish |
| USD/CHF | 0.8225 | 0.8180 / 0.8150 | 0.8280 / 0.8320 | Neutral |
| Bitcoin | ~$81K | $80K / $78K | $82K / $85K | Neutral-Bullish |
| WTI | ~$100 | $98 / $95 | $102 / $105 | Neutral |
| NASDAQ 100 | 29,644 | 29,400 / 29,000 | 30,000 / 30,200 | Neutral-Bullish |
| US30 | 51,683 | 51,200 / 50,800 | 52,000 / 52,500 | Neutral |
| S&P 500 | 7,651 | 7,600 / 7,550 | 7,700 / 7,750 | Neutral |
Forex Market Outlook
DXY
DXY begins the week around 100.20 after benefiting from last week’s Federal Reserve rate increase.
The Dollar still has fundamental support from relatively high US yields.
However, this week’s PMIs and Fed speakers could determine whether markets increase or reduce expectations for another hike.
Holding above 99.80 keeps the short-term structure constructive.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD opens around 1.1485.
Both the ECB and Fed have tightened recently, making relative growth increasingly important.
Wednesday’s Eurozone PMIs could therefore become the week’s major EUR catalyst.
A move above 1.1550 would improve the near-term structure, while a break below 1.1450 could expose 1.1400.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD begins the week near 1.3380.
The BoE’s 6–3 vote showed that inflation concerns remain elevated.
UK Flash PMIs on Wednesday will now test whether the economy can absorb restrictive rates and higher energy prices.
The first major resistance region sits around 1.3450.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY begins the week around 156.8 despite last Friday’s BoJ Rate Hike.
The Yen’s weakness highlights the continuing gap between US and Japanese rates.
Japan’s Flash Manufacturing PMI later in the week could provide another growth signal, but the larger issue remains expectations for the BoJ’s next move.
The 158 region remains an important upside area, while 156 and 155.20 provide support.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD begins around 0.7114.
This is an important week for the Australian Dollar because it receives global PMI data, domestic employment numbers and potentially market-moving US-China headlines.
AUD is particularly sensitive to expectations surrounding Chinese demand.
NZD/USD
NZD/USD begins close to 0.5723.
The Kiwi remains vulnerable to tight global financial conditions but could benefit if risk sentiment improves around China and global growth.
The 0.5690–0.5650 region remains the principal downside area.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD remains close to 1.4000.
Canada releases Retail Sales Thursday.
Oil will also remain critical because the recent decline toward $100 has reduced some of the support previously available to the Canadian Dollar.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF trades near 0.8225 ahead of Thursday’s Swiss National Bank decision.
The SNB policy rate currently stands at 0.00%, and market expectations broadly favour another hold.
Any surprise change in guidance could create substantial CHF volatility.
Gold Outlook: $4,400 Returns to Focus
Spot gold begins the week around $4,370–$4,380.
Gold remains caught between elevated Treasury yields and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
If the 10-year yield remains near or above 5%, bullion could struggle to sustain a clean break above $4,400.
If growth data disappoints and yields retreat, gold could benefit quickly.
Immediate support sits around $4,320 and $4,300.
Resistance sits around $4,400 followed by approximately $4,450.
🥇 Gold Weekly SMC / ICT Checklist
This week, focus on where Gold is delivering within the weekly range rather than automatically following last week’s direction.
- Weekly Open:
Watch whether Gold accepts above or below the weekly opening price. Repeated rejection around the open can reveal whether buyers or sellers control the week. - Last Week’s Range:
Mark the previous week’s high and low as the major external liquidity pools. Determine which side is more likely to become this week’s draw on liquidity. - $4,400–$4,450:
This is the major upside liquidity area. A sweep followed by rejection would be very different from strong acceptance and displacement above it. - $4,320–$4,300:
This is the first important downside zone. Watch whether price simply taps it or sweeps sell-side liquidity before reclaiming the area. - Monday Range:
Use Monday’s high and low as the week’s first important internal liquidity boundaries. Midweek frequently expands after one side is raided. - Weekly Premium / Discount:
If Gold trades near the top of the weekly dealing range, be more selective with fresh longs. If price reaches discount, look for evidence of accumulation rather than blindly selling. - Yield Confirmation:
Watch Gold alongside the US 10-year yield. Gold strengthening while yields fall provides cleaner confirmation than Gold rising against aggressively higher yields. - DXY Divergence:
If DXY makes a new high but Gold refuses to make a corresponding low, that relative strength can warn that Gold selling pressure is weakening. - Wednesday PMI Volatility:
Global PMIs can shift growth and rate expectations. Watch for a liquidity sweep before treating the first news candle as directional confirmation. - Thursday Repricing:
Multiple central-bank decisions can move yields and safe-haven flows even without a direct US catalyst. Gold may react indirectly through bonds and currencies. - Weekly Objective Completed?
Once either major weekly liquidity target has been taken, reduce the tendency to chase continuation. The probability of rebalancing or profit-taking increases.
🎯 Gold Weekly Execution Model
Weekly Liquidity Target → Session Sweep → Displacement → Retracement → Continuation or Weekly Reversal
🥇 Gold Weekly SMC / ICT Checklist
- Weekly Open: Watch acceptance above or below.
- Previous Week High / Low: Main external liquidity.
- Upside: $4,400–$4,450 liquidity zone.
- Downside: $4,320–$4,300 support/liquidity zone.
- Monday Range: Mark Monday High and Low.
- Premium / Discount: Avoid chasing highs; look for value.
- DXY & Yields: Use them for confirmation.
- News Sweeps: Watch PMIs and central-bank volatility.
- Confirmation: Sweep → MSS / CHOCH → FVG / OB retest.
🎯 Weekly Gold Model
Liquidity Sweep → Displacement → MSS → FVG / OB Retest → Target Opposing Liquidity
Oil Outlook: Is the $100 Battle Finally Breaking?
Front-month WTI begins the week around the $99–$100 region.
Oil has retreated as concerns about prolonged Saudi supply disruptions eased.
Reports suggest the East-West pipeline could resume partial operations, reducing some of the immediate risk premium.
However, regional security concerns remain unresolved.
The Strait of Hormuz, Saudi energy infrastructure and Houthi-related attacks remain capable of producing rapid price changes.
Oil Below Recent Highs
→
Less Inflation Pressure
→
Potential Yield Relief
→
Support for Gold & Stocks
A renewed move above $102–$105 would put inflation concerns back at the center of the market narrative.
Bitcoin Outlook: BTC Reclaims $80K
Bitcoin begins the week around $81,000 after a strong rebound from last week’s lows.
BTC remains sensitive to liquidity expectations and Treasury yields.
The $80,000 region now becomes an important support test.
A sustained break above $82,000 could open the way toward approximately $85,000.
A move back below $80,000 could expose $78,000 and lower support.
Stock Market Outlook
US equities enter the week after a highly volatile central-bank period.
Technology shares remained the strongest major segment last week.
However, high Treasury yields continue to place pressure on valuations.
NASDAQ 100
The Nasdaq 100 finished Friday around 29,644.
The 30,000 region remains the next major psychological upside target.
Technology shares could benefit from lower oil and yields, but strong PMIs that push yields higher could create renewed pressure.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 closed Friday around 7,650.
The index remains close to 7,700 resistance, while 7,600 is the first meaningful support.
Dow Jones / US30
The Dow ended Friday near 51,683 after falling approximately 1.7% over the week.
The index may remain sensitive to energy costs, yields and the outlook for global trade.
Geopolitics and Global Trade
Geopolitical risk remains an important market driver even though crude oil has moved lower.
Middle East developments continue to affect energy prices, inflation expectations and central-bank policy.
The United Nations General Assembly is also underway in New York, placing several international conflicts and economic issues in focus.
Thursday’s Trump-Xi meeting adds another major geopolitical and trade event.
Markets will particularly watch for developments related to trade tariffs, technology restrictions and broader US-China economic relations.
Positive trade signals could support risk-sensitive assets.
Renewed tensions could increase demand for defensive assets and weigh on currencies linked to global growth.
Economic Calendar This Week
Monday, September 21
🇨🇳 China Loan Prime Rates
China’s 1-year Loan Prime Rate is expected to remain around 3.00%, while the 5-year rate is expected around 3.50%.
Any unexpected change could affect AUD, NZD, commodities and Asian equities.
🇺🇸 Fed Speakers
Federal Reserve commentary begins to return following last week’s rate hike.
Markets will listen for clues about whether the September move could be followed by another hike before year-end.
Tuesday, September 22
🇬🇧 UK Public Sector Borrowing
UK government borrowing data will provide another look at fiscal conditions as higher rates and energy costs affect the economy.
🇪🇺 Eurozone Consumer Confidence
The preliminary September reading is expected near -16.
🇺🇸 Richmond Fed Manufacturing & Fed Speakers
Regional manufacturing data and several Federal Reserve speeches could create short-term Dollar and Treasury-yield volatility.
Wednesday, September 23
🔥 Global Flash PMI Day
Wednesday is likely to be the week’s most important global growth-data session.
Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs are released for:
- Australia
- France
- Germany
- Eurozone
- United Kingdom
- United States
US Manufacturing PMI is expected around 53–54, while Services PMI is expected around 56.
UK Composite PMI is expected to remain above 50, signalling continued expansion.
🛢️ EIA Crude Oil Inventories
With WTI close to $100, inventory data could create additional oil-market volatility.
Thursday, September 24
🏦 Global Central-Bank Day
Several central banks announce policy decisions.
- Swiss National Bank – current policy rate 0.00%
- Norges Bank – current policy rate 4.25%
- Riksbank – current policy rate 1.75%
- Bank of Mexico – policy decision
- South African Reserve Bank – policy decision
CHF, NOK, SEK, MXN and ZAR traders should prepare for increased volatility.
🇦🇺 Australia Employment Report
Employment change and unemployment data could influence expectations surrounding future RBA policy.
🇺🇸 US Initial Jobless Claims & New Home Sales
Labour and housing data will provide another test of how the US economy is responding to restrictive rates.
🇨🇦 Canada Retail Sales
The report could influence USD/CAD alongside oil prices.
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Trump-Xi Meeting
The meeting is expected to focus heavily on US-China economic relations and trade.
Headline risk could be significant for global equities, AUD, NZD and commodities.
Friday, September 25
🇺🇸 US Durable Goods Orders
August Durable Goods Orders arrive at 8:30 a.m. ET / 12:30 UTC.
The report will provide insight into business investment and demand for long-lasting manufactured goods.
🇺🇸 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final
The preliminary September sentiment reading fell sharply to 47.8.
One-year inflation expectations climbed to approximately 4.6%.
Any significant revision could influence Treasury yields and Fed expectations heading into the weekend.
📅 FOLLOW THIS WEEK’S MARKET EVENTS
Track global PMIs, central-bank decisions, Fed speakers and high-impact economic releases throughout the week.
TraderFactor Trading Focus This Week
Last week’s major central-bank announcements created large displacement moves across forex, gold, crypto and indices.
This week could be more about retracements, liquidity rebalancing and confirmation of the new macro structure.
🎯 SMC / ICT Weekly Checklist
- Mark last week’s High and Low
- Identify which side of weekly external liquidity remains unswept
- Mark Monday’s High and Low
- Track Previous Week High and Previous Week Low
- Identify major post-Fed, BoE and BoJ Fair Value Gaps
- Watch whether those FVGs are rebalanced this week
- Track Asian, London and New York session liquidity
- Wait for liquidity sweeps before high-quality entries
- Confirm displacement and MSS / CHOCH
- Use premium for shorts and discount for longs
- Be cautious around Wednesday PMIs and Thursday central-bank announcements
- Watch Friday for weekly profit-taking and liquidity completion
Final Market Outlook
Last week was about central banks.
This week is about whether the global economy can live with the decisions those central banks just made.
The Fed raised rates.
The ECB raised rates the previous week.
The Bank of Japan raised rates.
The Bank of England kept rates unchanged, but three officials wanted another increase.
Now PMIs will provide one of the clearest early indications of whether higher rates, elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty are slowing business activity.
Strong PMIs could reinforce expectations that central banks still have room to remain restrictive.
Weak PMIs could trigger lower yields and create support for gold, Bitcoin and interest-rate-sensitive equities.
Thursday then brings another wave of central-bank decisions and the Trump-Xi meeting.
Oil remains the wildcard.
If WTI remains below recent highs, inflation fears could continue easing.
If geopolitical disruption pushes crude sharply higher again, the higher-for-longer narrative could return very quickly.
The key theme this week is no longer simply monetary tightening.
It is whether global growth can withstand it.
Current Market Bias
DXY: Neutral-bullish above 99.80
Gold: Neutral between $4,320 and $4,400
EUR/USD: Neutral-bearish below 1.1550
GBP/USD: Neutral below 1.3450
NZD/USD: Bearish-neutral below 0.5780
AUD/USD: Neutral ahead of PMIs and US-China talks
USD/CAD: Neutral-bullish near 1.4000
USD/JPY: Neutral-bullish while above 156
USD/CHF: Neutral ahead of SNB
Bitcoin: Neutral-bullish above $80K
WTI: Neutral around $100
NASDAQ 100: Neutral-bullish above 29,400
US30: Neutral below 52,000
S&P 500: Neutral near 7,650
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the biggest market events this week?
Global Flash PMIs on Wednesday, several central-bank decisions Thursday, the Trump-Xi meeting, US weekly jobless claims, New Home Sales and Friday’s Durable Goods Orders and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment are among the main events.
Is US PCE inflation released this Friday?
No. The August Personal Income and Outlays report, including the PCE inflation index, is scheduled for September 30, 2026.
What did the Federal Reserve do last week?
The Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. Its latest projections also kept open the possibility of another increase before year-end.
What did the Bank of Japan do?
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25%. The Yen nevertheless weakened initially because the increase had been largely priced in and traders wanted stronger guidance on future hikes.
Why are PMIs important this week?
Flash PMIs will provide an early September reading of manufacturing and services activity after a series of central-bank rate increases. They can influence expectations for growth, inflation and future monetary policy.
Which central banks meet this week?
Major scheduled decisions include the Swiss National Bank, Norges Bank and Sweden’s Riksbank, alongside policy announcements from Mexico and South Africa.
What could move gold this week?
Gold is likely to remain sensitive to US Treasury yields, Federal Reserve commentary, PMI data, oil prices and geopolitical developments. The $4,400 area remains important resistance.
What could move Bitcoin this week?
Bitcoin remains sensitive to Dollar strength, Treasury yields and expectations for global liquidity. Holding above $80K would keep attention on $82K and $85K.
| 🚀 Top-Rated Forex Broker Reviews Compare brokers, spreads, leverage, platforms & trading conditions. | ||
|---|---|---|
| 🔥 IronFX Trading Conditions | ⭐ PU Prime Spreads & Platforms | 📈 NAGA Social Trading |
| ⚡ TMGM Execution Speed | 💹 M4 Markets Account Types | 💼 RS Prime Broker Overview |
| 👑 OneRoyal Regulation & Safety | 🎯 Skilling Platform Review | 📊 DeltaStock Broker Features |
| 🚀 Eightcap Trading Experience | 🧪 Alchemy Markets Broker Analysis | ✅ ActivTrades Expert Review |
| 💰 VS Capital Broker Rating | ⚖️ High Leverage Compare Leverage | 📉 Low Spreads Trading Costs |
| Compare Broker Features, Costs, Regulation, Platforms & Leverage Explore our independent broker reviews before choosing your next trading account. | ||
About the Author
Zahari Rangelov
Head of Business Development, TraderFactor
Zahari specializes in broker analysis, regulatory research, and trading education. He has over a decade of experience helping traders navigate the complex world of online brokers. His expertise spans technical and fundamental analysis, medium-term trading strategies, risk management, and trading psychology. A respected mentor and speaker, Zahari regularly leads webinars and seminars covering market sentiment, speculative instruments, and automated trading systems. His research-backed, practical approach has established him as a trusted authority within the global trading community.
Reviewed By:
Reviewed by Alex Kanyi, Head of Compliance at TraderFactor
“This report is for general information only. Trading involves significant risk. Seek independent advice before acting on any content.”
No comments:
Post a Comment