Market Outlook This Week: US NFP, RBA Rate Decision and PCE Inflation in Focus
September 28 – October 2, 2026 | Forex, Gold, Bitcoin, Oil & Global Stock Market Outlook
The Market Outlook this week is dominated by the United States labour market, with Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report set to provide the final and potentially most important catalyst of a busy five-day trading period.
Before NFP arrives, traders must navigate an RBA interest rate decision, US JOLTS Job Openings, ADP employment, PCE inflation, US GDP, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Australian inflation, UK GDP and Eurozone inflation.
The week also begins with markets still dealing with a powerful combination of elevated US Treasury yields, a resilient US Dollar, falling Gold prices and continuing geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran relations and global energy supplies.
Gold has opened the week under renewed pressure near the $4,200 region, EUR/USD is back below 1.1400, AUD/USD is holding close to 0.7000 and WTI crude remains above $92 per barrel.
That creates a potentially volatile setup heading toward Friday’s US jobs report.
Table of Contents
💭 QUESTION OF THE WEEK
Will Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls confirm that the labour market remains strong — or finally give the Dollar and Treasury yields a reason to retreat?
Weekly Macro Chain:
PCE → ADP → ISM → NFP → Dollar • Gold • Stocks • Bitcoin
📌 Key Takeaways
- US NFP:
Friday’s September Nonfarm Payrolls report is the main event of the week. - Payroll Forecast:
Markets are looking for roughly 100K new jobs after 162K in August, with unemployment expected around 4.1%. - US Dollar:
DXY begins the week close to the 101 region after reaching a two-month high last week. - Gold:
XAU/USD has dropped toward $4,200 as elevated yields and Dollar strength pressure bullion. - RBA:
Australia’s central bank decides rates Tuesday, with many analysts expecting a 25bp increase from 4.35% to 4.60%. - PCE Inflation:
The Fed’s closely watched inflation measure arrives Wednesday. - Bitcoin:
BTC enters the week around the mid-$80K region after strong institutional ETF inflows but continued profit-taking. - Oil:
WTI remains above $92 as markets monitor the US-Iran confrontation and the Strait of Hormuz. - Stocks:
Wall Street ended last week higher, but Treasury yields above 5% remain a major valuation risk. - Quarter-End:
September and Q3 end Wednesday, increasing the risk of institutional rebalancing flows.
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⚡ Weekly Market Outlook: Quick Answer
The US Dollar starts the week with the advantage, while Gold remains vulnerable to high Treasury yields. Tuesday’s RBA decision could drive AUD/USD, Wednesday’s PCE inflation and ADP employment could reshape US rate expectations, Thursday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI will test the growth narrative, and Friday’s NFP report becomes the week’s decisive labour-market event.
What Happened in Markets Last Week?
Last week produced large moves across bonds, currencies, commodities and stocks.
The US Dollar Index climbed above 101 and reached its strongest level since late July as Treasury yields surged.
The US 10-year Treasury yield finished Friday around 5.18%, while the 30-year yield moved above 5.50%.
Yet US equities managed to finish the week higher.
- S&P 500: 7,743.41 | +1.21% for the week
- Nasdaq Composite: 27,068.72 | +2.06%
- Dow Jones: 51,828.62 | +0.28%
- Nasdaq 100: 30,608.13 Friday close
Gold had a much more difficult week as stronger yields and Dollar demand reduced the appeal of non-yielding bullion.
Bitcoin performed more strongly, supported by substantial US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, although profit-taking emerged after BTC moved above $87K.
📚 Catch Up on Last Week’s Market Moves
Previous Weekly Market Outlook →
Dollar Hits Two-Month High After Hot US PMIs →
Dollar Holds Firm as Gold, Bitcoin and Oil End a Volatile Week →
💵 US Dollar Outlook: Can DXY Hold Above 101?
The US Dollar outlook this week will increasingly depend on whether incoming inflation and labour-market data validate the Dollar rally.
DXY reached approximately 101.40 last Thursday before easing toward 101 into Friday’s close.
The Dollar has benefited from:
- Strong US economic activity
- Elevated Treasury yields
- Persistent inflation concerns
- Hawkish Federal Reserve commentary
- Geopolitical uncertainty
But the Dollar now faces several tests.
JOLTS, ADP, PCE inflation, ISM Manufacturing and finally NFP could either confirm the current macro narrative or force traders to unwind part of the recent move.
Strong US Data
→
Higher Yields
→
USD Support
→
Pressure on Gold & Rate-Sensitive Assets
🔥 US NFP Friday: The Biggest Market Event This Week
Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report is likely to be the most closely watched economic release of the week.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the September Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, October 2.
August payrolls increased by 162,000, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%.
Current market expectations point toward roughly 100,000 new jobs in September, with unemployment expected to remain around 4.1%.
Traders should not focus on the headline payroll figure alone.
What Matters Inside the NFP Report?
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- Unemployment Rate
- Average Hourly Earnings
- Labour Force Participation
- Previous-month revisions
- Private-sector employment
- Manufacturing employment
NFP Market Scenarios
Strong NFP
A clearly stronger payroll number combined with firm wages and stable unemployment could lift Treasury yields and the Dollar while pressuring Gold and interest-rate-sensitive assets.
NFP Near Expectations
A result around 80K–120K may shift attention toward wages, unemployment and revisions rather than the headline number alone.
Weak NFP
A significant downside surprise could pressure Treasury yields and the Dollar while potentially providing relief to Gold, Bitcoin and equities.
🥇 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Falls Toward $4,200
The Gold price outlook this week starts with sellers firmly in control.
XAU/USD fell toward approximately $4,215 during Monday’s early Asian session after failing to sustain Friday’s recovery.
The main pressure comes from the combination of a firm Dollar and elevated Treasury yields.
This week gives Gold several potential volatility triggers:
- Tuesday JOLTS
- Wednesday PCE inflation
- Wednesday ADP employment
- Thursday ISM Manufacturing
- Friday Nonfarm Payrolls
- Middle East headlines
The $4,200 area becomes an immediate psychological battleground.
A recovery through $4,250 could open a path toward $4,300, while sustained trade below $4,200 would place lower sell-side liquidity in focus.
🥇 Gold SMC / ICT Weekly Checklist
- Previous Week High / Low: Major liquidity
- Friday High / Low: Early-week reference
- Weekly Open: Watch premium / discount
- Asian High / Low: Session liquidity
- $4,200: Psychological support
- $4,250: First recovery barrier
- $4,300: Major upside liquidity
- Watch DXY: 101 region
- Watch US 10Y: Above / below 5%
- Confirmation: Sweep → Displacement → MSS → FVG / OB
🇪🇺 EUR/USD Forecast: Eurozone Inflation and NFP in Focus
EUR/USD begins the week around 1.1380 after posting three consecutive weekly declines.
The Euro has been pressured primarily by the rebound in the US Dollar.
This week brings an important European inflation test.
Eurozone inflation was 3.2% year-over-year in August, while September’s flash estimate will be released Friday.
Germany also publishes inflation data during the week.
- Support: 1.1350 / 1.1300
- Resistance: 1.1420 / 1.1480
🇬🇧 GBP/USD Forecast: UK GDP Meets US Jobs Week
GBP/USD starts Monday around 1.3230.
Sterling remains close to the important 1.3200 region following two consecutive weekly declines.
Wednesday’s final UK Q2 GDP and current-account data could generate domestic volatility, although US PCE and Friday’s NFP will likely remain the stronger global catalysts.
- Support: 1.3200 / 1.3150
- Resistance: 1.3280 / 1.3350
🇦🇺 AUD/USD Forecast: RBA Rate Decision Takes Centre Stage
AUD/USD begins the week around 0.7010.
Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision is the first major central-bank event of the week.
The RBA’s current cash-rate target stands at 4.35%.
Many analysts expect a 25-basis-point increase to 4.60% following stronger employment data, persistent inflation pressure and resilient domestic activity.
However, the policy statement and guidance may matter just as much as the headline rate decision.
Australia then releases fresh monthly inflation data on Wednesday.
- Support: 0.6980 / 0.6945
- Resistance: 0.7050 / 0.7100
🇳🇿 NZD/USD Forecast
NZD/USD ended last week around the mid-0.5600 region after several weeks of persistent selling.
The Kiwi remains particularly sensitive to US yields, China-related sentiment and movements in AUD/USD.
With the domestic calendar relatively light, the US data sequence is likely to dominate.
- Support: 0.5630 / 0.5600
- Resistance: 0.5700 / 0.5750
🇯🇵 USD/JPY Forecast: 160 Remains a Critical Area
USD/JPY finished last week close to the 158–159 region after briefly pushing above 159.
High US Treasury yields continue to support the Dollar side of the pair.
However, traders remain highly sensitive to potential intervention warnings as USD/JPY approaches 160.
Bank of Japan meeting minutes are also released early this week.
- Support: 157.50 / 156.50
- Resistance: 159.00 / 160.00
🇨🇦 USD/CAD Forecast: Canadian GDP and Oil in Focus
USD/CAD ended last week close to 1.4140.
Canada releases July GDP on Tuesday, giving CAD traders an important domestic growth update.
But the Canadian Dollar also remains highly sensitive to WTI crude and changes in US-Canada yield differentials.
- Support: 1.4100 / 1.4050
- Resistance: 1.4180 / 1.4220
🇨🇭 USD/CHF Forecast
USD/CHF ended last week around 0.8285, close to its strongest levels in more than a year.
The Swiss National Bank’s zero interest-rate setting and high US yields have widened the yield differential in favour of the Dollar.
- Support: 0.8240 / 0.8200
- Resistance: 0.8320 / 0.8350
₿ Bitcoin Price Forecast: Can BTC Hold Above $82K?
Bitcoin enters the week around the $84K region after gaining strongly earlier last week before profit-taking emerged.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $2.25 billion in net inflows through Thursday last week, the strongest weekly inflow since October 2025 at that point.
That institutional demand remains supportive, but Bitcoin is also exposed to a heavy macro calendar.
A sharp rise in Treasury yields following PCE or NFP could pressure crypto, while falling yields could improve risk appetite.
- Support: $82K / $80K
- Resistance: $85K / $87.5K
🛢️ WTI Oil Outlook: Strait of Hormuz Remains the Geopolitical Wildcard
WTI crude opened the week above $92 per barrel.
Oil remains caught between supply concerns and hopes that diplomacy could eventually reduce Middle East risk.
That makes energy one of the most headline-sensitive markets this week.
A renewed rise in Oil could feed back into:
- Inflation expectations
- Treasury yields
- The US Dollar
- Gold
- USD/CAD
- Equity valuations
🌍 Geopolitical Market Outlook This Week
🇺🇸🇮🇷 US-Iran Conflict and the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz remains the most immediate geopolitical risk for global markets.
President Donald Trump said Saturday that he rejected Iran’s latest proposal concerning reopening the Strait and restarting negotiations.
Iran’s foreign minister subsequently said Tehran continues to favour a negotiated solution but maintains conditions for reopening the waterway.
For markets, the practical issue is shipping and energy supply. Any improvement or deterioration in Strait traffic could move Oil, inflation expectations, Treasury yields, Gold and global equities quickly.
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Relations After the Trump-Xi Meeting
Markets will also monitor implementation of agreements and discussions following last week’s Trump-Xi state visit.
According to the White House, the two governments operationalized their Boards of Trade and Investment and reached recommendations for more favourable tariff treatment on selected non-sensitive goods.
Future headlines involving tariffs, rare-earth supply chains, technology and trade could be particularly relevant for AUD, NZD, commodities and global technology stocks.
🇺🇦🇷🇺 Russia-Ukraine Energy Risk
Russia and Ukraine continue exchanging strikes, including attacks affecting energy and refinery infrastructure.
Although the Middle East remains the larger immediate driver of Oil, disruption to Russian refining and Black Sea trade could add another layer of volatility to diesel, crude and European energy markets.
📈 Stock Market Outlook: NFP Meets 5% Treasury Yields
Wall Street ended last week with gains despite the sharp rise in bond yields.
The S&P 500 gained 1.21% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.06%.
However, the 10-year Treasury yield ended around 5.18%.
This creates an important tension heading into the new week:
Strong Earnings / AI Demand
VS
High Bond Yields / Inflation Risk
Technology and growth stocks may remain particularly sensitive to Wednesday’s PCE release and Friday’s employment data.
A strong NFP report could support the economic-growth narrative but also lift yields, creating a mixed reaction for stocks.
Current Market Snapshot
Levels below are approximate reference prices and may differ across brokers, exchanges and contracts.
Weekly Support & Resistance Levels
| Asset | Current | Support | Resistance | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | ~101.0 | 100.70 / 100.20 | 101.40 / 102.00 | Bullish-Neutral |
| Gold | ~4215 | 4200 / 4175 | 4250 / 4300 | Bearish-Neutral |
| EUR/USD | 1.1380 | 1.1350 / 1.1300 | 1.1420 / 1.1480 | Bearish-Neutral |
| GBP/USD | 1.3230 | 1.3200 / 1.3150 | 1.3280 / 1.3350 | Bearish-Neutral |
| AUD/USD | 0.7010 | 0.6980 / 0.6945 | 0.7050 / 0.7100 | RBA Sensitive |
| NZD/USD | 0.5660 | 0.5630 / 0.5600 | 0.5700 / 0.5750 | Bearish-Neutral |
| USD/CAD | 1.4140 | 1.4100 / 1.4050 | 1.4180 / 1.4220 | Bullish-Neutral |
| USD/JPY | ~158–159 | 157.50 / 156.50 | 159.00 / 160.00 | Bullish / Intervention Risk |
| USD/CHF | 0.8285 | 0.8240 / 0.8200 | 0.8320 / 0.8350 | Bullish |
| Bitcoin | ~84K | 82K / 80K | 85K / 87.5K | Neutral-Bullish |
| WTI | ~92 | 90 / 88 | 94.50 / 96 | Headline Sensitive |
| NASDAQ 100 | 30,608 | 30,200 / 30,000 | 30,770 / 31,000 | Yield Sensitive |
| US30 | 51,829 | 51,300 / 51,000 | 52,200 / 52,500 | Neutral |
| S&P 500 | 7,743 | 7,680 / 7,600 | 7,800 / 7,850 | Neutral |
📅 Economic Calendar This Week: September 28 – October 2
MONDAY – September 28
🇯🇵 Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes
Traders will look for more detail on the BoJ’s thinking following its recent rate increase.
🇺🇸 Federal Reserve Speakers
The US calendar is relatively light, leaving Treasury yields, geopolitical headlines and positioning ahead of Tuesday’s events as the main market drivers.
TUESDAY – September 29 🔴
🇦🇺 RBA Interest Rate Decision – HIGH IMPACT
The cash rate currently stands at 4.35%. Analysts widely expect another 25bp increase to 4.60%, making AUD/USD and AUD crosses vulnerable to sharp volatility.
🇨🇦 Canada GDP – July
Canada’s monthly growth report could influence USD/CAD alongside Oil.
🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings – 10:00 ET
JOLTS provides the first major US labour-market test ahead of Friday’s NFP report.
🇺🇸 Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence will provide additional insight into household conditions and employment perceptions.
WEDNESDAY – September 30 🔴
🇦🇺 Australia CPI Inflation
The inflation report arrives one day after the RBA decision and could immediately reshape expectations for Australia’s next policy move.
🇬🇧 UK Q2 GDP – Final
The previous estimate showed the UK economy expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter.
🇺🇸 ADP Employment Report
Private payroll data provides another labour-market signal ahead of NFP.
🇺🇸 US PCE Inflation – 8:30 ET – HIGH IMPACT
The August Personal Consumption Expenditures report includes the Federal Reserve’s closely monitored inflation gauge.
Core PCE inflation stood at 3.3% year-over-year in July.
🇺🇸 US Q2 GDP – Third Estimate
🇩🇪 German Inflation
📌 Month-End & Quarter-End Rebalancing
September and Q3 end Wednesday, so institutional portfolio adjustments may create flows that are not purely driven by economic fundamentals.
THURSDAY – October 1 🔴
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly claims become particularly relevant immediately before NFP.
🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI – 10:00 ET – HIGH IMPACT
August ISM Manufacturing stood at 54.6.
Watch the Employment and Prices Paid components as closely as the headline PMI.
🌍 Final Manufacturing PMIs
Final manufacturing readings across several major economies will provide additional clues on global growth and inflation.
FRIDAY – October 2 🔥 NFP DAY
🇺🇸 US NONFARM PAYROLLS – 8:30 ET – MAJOR MARKET EVENT
Previous: +162K
Consensus: approximately +100K
Previous Unemployment Rate: 4.1%
Expected Unemployment: approximately 4.1%
Watch payrolls, unemployment, wages and revisions together.
🇪🇺 Eurozone Flash CPI Inflation
Eurozone September inflation arrives the same day, making Friday particularly important for EUR/USD as both sides of the currency pair receive major macro updates.
📅 TRACK THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC EVENTS
TraderFactor SMC / ICT Weekly Trading Plan
- Mark Previous Week High and Low
- Mark Friday High and Low
- Identify Weekly Open
- Track Daily PDH / PDL
- Mark Asian liquidity every session
- Expect volatility around RBA Tuesday
- Watch Wednesday PCE / quarter-end flows
- Watch Thursday ISM liquidity
- Do not chase the first NFP candle Friday
- Wait for liquidity sweep
- Confirm displacement
- Confirm MSS / CHOCH
- Use FVG / Order Block retracement
- Target opposing liquidity
📊 Learn Divergence in Forex Trading
Learn how bullish and bearish divergence can help identify weakening momentum around major liquidity zones and high-impact events such as NFP.
Final Market Outlook This Week
This week’s market structure builds progressively toward Friday.
Tuesday begins the major-event sequence with the RBA rate decision and JOLTS Job Openings.
Wednesday then becomes a major inflation and employment session as PCE inflation and ADP arrive alongside Australian CPI, UK GDP and quarter-end flows.
Thursday’s ISM Manufacturing report provides the final major US growth signal before Friday.
Then comes Nonfarm Payrolls.
For the Dollar, the question is whether US economic strength is strong enough to keep yields elevated.
For Gold, the question is whether $4,200 can survive another week of high real yields and Dollar strength.
For Bitcoin and stocks, the challenge is whether strong economic data can remain positive for growth without triggering another sharp bond-market repricing.
For Oil, economic data may temporarily take second place to the Strait of Hormuz.
The week may begin with the RBA, but it is likely to end with one number dominating global markets:
US NONFARM PAYROLLS
Current Weekly Market Bias
DXY: Bullish-neutral above 100.70
Gold: Bearish-neutral below $4,250
EUR/USD: Bearish-neutral below 1.1420
GBP/USD: Bearish-neutral below 1.3280
AUD/USD: RBA-sensitive around 0.7000
NZD/USD: Bearish-neutral below 0.5700
USD/CAD: Bullish-neutral above 1.4100
USD/JPY: Bullish structure but intervention-sensitive near 160
USD/CHF: Bullish above 0.8240
Bitcoin: Neutral-bullish while above $82K
WTI: Geopolitical / headline-sensitive
NASDAQ 100: Bullish-neutral but highly yield-sensitive
US30: Neutral
S&P 500: Neutral-bullish while holding above 7,680
Market Outlook This Week FAQ
What is the biggest market event this week?
Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report is the week’s main scheduled macro event because it provides a broad update on employment, unemployment and wage growth.
When is US NFP released?
The September 2026 Employment Situation is scheduled for Friday, October 2 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
What is the NFP forecast?
Current market expectations are around 100K jobs following August’s 162K increase, while unemployment is expected to remain near 4.1%.
When is the RBA interest rate decision?
The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its next policy decision on Tuesday, September 29. The current cash rate is 4.35%.
When is US PCE inflation released?
The August Personal Income and Outlays report, including PCE inflation, is scheduled for Wednesday, September 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
What could move Gold this week?
Gold is likely to remain sensitive to the US Dollar, Treasury yields, PCE inflation, ISM Manufacturing, Nonfarm Payrolls and developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
Why is Oil important for forex traders?
Oil affects inflation expectations, bond yields and currencies such as CAD. Large energy-price moves can also alter central-bank expectations and broader risk sentiment.
Risk Disclaimer:
This Market Outlook This Week analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Forex, Gold, cryptocurrencies, commodities, stocks and leveraged products involve significant risk. Major releases including RBA decisions, PCE inflation, ISM and Nonfarm Payrolls can create rapid price movements, widened spreads and slippage.
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About the Author
Phyllis Wangui
Senior Market Analyst, TraderFactor
Phyllis Wangui is a seasoned financial markets analyst with over a decade of experience in forex and CFD brokerage evaluation. Specializing in regulatory compliance and risk assessment, she leads the TraderFactor reviews team in delivering transparent, data-driven broker breakdowns that help retail traders navigate complex offshore and Tier-1 trading environments.
Reviewed by Alex Kanyi
Head of Compliance | TraderFactor
“This report is for general information only. Trading involves significant risk. Seek independent advice before acting on any content.”
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